Rolling 14-day RMSE for next-day high temperature forecasts across 60+ US cities, comparing eight operational forecast sources. Lower is better. Data updated automatically each morning.
Loading data…
City
NBM
GEFS
NDFD
ECMWF
ECMWF 9km
HRRR
UKMO
UKMO Det
RMSE = root mean square error of next-day high temperature forecasts vs. NWS observed highs (°F).
Color scale:
<2.0°F2.0–3.0°F>3.0°F.
Click any column header to sort. “—” means fewer than 3 paired observations in the 14-day window.
Sources: NBM (National Blend of Models), GEFS (GFS Ensemble), NDFD (National Digital Forecast Database),
ECMWF (IFS HRES), ECMWF 9km (IFS HRES 9km via Open-Meteo), HRRR (NOAA 3km CONUS only; — for non-CONUS cities),
UKMO (MOGREPS-G ensemble via Open-Meteo), UKMO Det (UKMO Global 10km deterministic via Open-Meteo).